Chart of the Week

Pandu Shaduka
  • 14 Hours Ago
Namibian bonds have shown resilience in the face of volatility. In 2020, the index declined as much as -12% during the COVID-19 sell-off – also a function of a deteriorating local fiscal position – but closed the year up 14.6%. The recovery was supported by strong performance across the South African benchmark bonds, along with the cushioning effect of high coupons. Similar trends followed in 2023 and 2024: brief intra-year losses, marked by volatile spread movements, gave way to strong annual returns, highlighting that short-term movements are often poor predictors of final outcomes.



For equities, the NSX Overall Index reflects the performance of companies listed on both the Namibian and South African stock exchanges. These stocks, such as Anglo American, BHP, FirstRand, and Standard Bank, are among the most liquid in the region and thus exhibit larger price swings. This liquidity creates both opportunity and volatility, making the index more sensitive to global risk sentiments. In 2020, it dropped as much as -43.4% intra-year before recovering to end flat, and then surged 27.5% in 2021. Local counters, with lower liquidity, tend to be more insulated and do not experience such sharp swings.



So far in 2025, bonds are up 3.2% and equities 10.3% year-to-date, despite minor intra-year dips. The muted volatility suggests stabilising expectations, although risks persist given growing global and local macroeconomic uncertainty. Volatility, particularly when amplified by exogenous shocks, rarely defines the full picture.



While the charts make a strong case that short-term swings are not destiny, it is important to remember one of the golden rules of finance: past performance is not a guarantee of future returns; otherwise, we could all be retired and on a beach in Swakop by now.